Industrial revolutions were spurred on by technological revolutions, and each one of these generated a large economic cycle of around 50 years; 25 years are can be described as ‘peak years’ and the other 25 as ‘recession, depression or crisis’.. Economist that identified and studied in detail for the first time was the Russian Nicolai Kondratieff Dmitriev (1928). In this theory, derived after short wave Kitchin (3 years), Kuznets (5 years), those of Juglar (15 years). All these waves relate to minor innovations processes and introduction of new production areas, which are driving growth toward expansion, just as they do water waves hitting the beaches: In the following table you can see the evolution of technological revolutions
Technological revolutions |
years |
Period |
Recovery |
Peak |
Recession |
Depression |
First |
41 years | 1787 - 1827 | 1787 - 1800 | 1801 - 1813 | 1814 - 1827 | |
Second |
58 years | 1828 - 1885 | 1828 - 1842 | 1843 - 1857 | 1858 - 1869 | 1870 - 1885 |
Third |
53 years | 1886 - 1938 | 1886 - 1897 | 1989 - 1911 | 1912 - 1925 | 1926- 1938 |
Fourth |
57 years | 1939 - 1995 | 1939 - 1945 | 1946 - 1911 | 1966 - 1973 1974 - 1995 |
|
Fifth |
? | 1996 - ? | 1996 - 2002 | 2003 - 2007 | 2008 - ? |
Particularly, Kaplinsky [2] briefly recognizes three major eras: From the S.XVI on the organization of craft production toindustrial production organization, in the S.XVIII, with the shift from manufacturing to industry-manufacturing and 80´s ofS.XX with the industry-manufacturing on industry-intelligence(information age or systemic).
Long waves: Kondratieff (1928) states that each technological revolution gives rise to a long cycle of about 50 years, of which 25 are "boom" and the other 25 are in "crisis". While Schumpeter and Mandel fall into this temporality. Shortwave: To Kutznes (1926-1971), Juglar represent periods of 5-15 years, and Kitchin are 3 years. All phases correspond to adjustment, incremental improvement or progress in the technologies that shape economic growth. In turn, Hoffman and Kaplinsky (1988), tambiénKaplinsky et al (2003), distinguishes three main industrial and technological eras: 1) In the sixteenth century: transition from craft production to manufacturing, 2) Eighteenth Century: passage of the manufacturing toeconomy of scale or big industry; and 3) 80´s S.XX: theindustry-intelligence or knowledge.
In a historical context, it is obvious that we are seeing the fifth technological revolution. The comparison of certain paradigms when looking at key factors between the fourth and fifth technological revolutions permits us to see a new trend.
Key factors |
Fouth technological revolution |
Fifth technological revolution |
leadership |
objective: meeting needs or solving problems |
objective: influence as agent of change tools: strategic vision and ability of communication |
Basic resources |
Cheap and abundant energy |
Information and flexible knowledge and strategies |
Production |
Automatic |
Flexibility |
Product mix |
Stable, homogenous |
Varied and changeable |
Organised structure |
Hierarchy, departamental |
Horizontal, through networks |
Abilities |
Specialisation |
Multi capacity |
Markets |
Massive, homogenised |
In segments, combined |
Competitiveness |
Static |
Dynamic |
Labour issues |
resolve conflicts |
Negotiation and cooperation |
Administration |
costs |
Management |