centro de información frutihorticola
Access:

 

Idioma / language: ESP ENG
¿Estas preparado para la quinta revolución tecnológica?

Industrial revolutions were spurred on by technological revolutions, and each one of these generated a large economic cycle of around 50 years; 25 years are can be described as ‘peak years’ and the other 25 as ‘recession, depression or crisis’.. Economist that identified and studied in detail for the first time was the Russian Nicolai Kondratieff Dmitriev (1928). In this theory, derived after short wave Kitchin (3 years), Kuznets (5 years), those of Juglar (15 years). All these waves relate to minor innovations processes and introduction of new production areas, which are driving growth toward expansion, just as they do water waves hitting the beaches: In the following table you can see the evolution of technological revolutions


Technological revolutions
years
Period
Recovery
Peak
Recession
Depression
First
41 years 1787 - 1827   1787 - 1800 1801 - 1813 1814 - 1827
Second
58 years 1828 - 1885 1828 - 1842 1843 - 1857 1858 - 1869 1870 - 1885
Third
53 years 1886 - 1938 1886 - 1897 1989 - 1911 1912 - 1925 1926- 1938
Fourth
57 years 1939 - 1995 1939 - 1945 1946 - 1911 1966 - 1973
1974 - 1995
 
Fifth
? 1996 - ? 1996 - 2002 2003 - 2007 2008 - ?  
Source: research papers of Hugo Latorre Fuenzalida, Simon Kuznets and Jürgen Schuldt

Particularly, Kaplinsky [2] briefly recognizes three major eras: From the S.XVI on the organization of craft production toindustrial production organization, in the S.XVIII, with the shift from manufacturing to industry-manufacturing and 80´s ofS.XX with the industry-manufacturing on industry-intelligence(information age or systemic).

Long waves: Kondratieff (1928) states that each technological revolution gives rise to a long cycle of about 50 years, of which 25 are "boom" and the other 25 are in "crisis". While Schumpeter and Mandel fall into this temporality. Shortwave: To Kutznes (1926-1971), Juglar represent periods of 5-15 years, and Kitchin are 3 years. All phases correspond to adjustment, incremental improvement or progress in the technologies that shape economic growth. In turn, Hoffman and Kaplinsky (1988), tambiénKaplinsky et al (2003), distinguishes three main industrial and technological eras: 1) In the sixteenth century: transition from craft production to manufacturing, 2) Eighteenth Century: passage of the manufacturing toeconomy of scale or big industry; and 3) 80´s S.XX: theindustry-intelligence or knowledge.

In a historical context, it is obvious that we are seeing the fifth technological revolution. The comparison of certain paradigms when looking at key factors between the fourth and fifth technological revolutions permits us to see a new trend.

 

Key factors

Fouth technological revolution

Fifth technological revolution

leadership

 objective: meeting needs  or solving problems
tools: power and authority

objective: influence as agent of change
tools: strategic vision and ability of communication

Basic resources

Cheap and abundant energy

Information and flexible knowledge and strategies

Production

Automatic

Flexibility

Product mix

Stable, homogenous

Varied and changeable

Organised structure

Hierarchy, departamental

Horizontal, through networks

Abilities

Specialisation

Multi capacity

Markets

Massive, homogenised

In segments, combined

Competitiveness 

Static 

Dynamic

Labour issues

resolve conflicts  

Negotiation and  cooperation

Administration

costs

Management